Wishful Thinking

I read an article by David Brooks today where he describes the four steps involved in making a decision. Seeing as I’ve found myself the crossroads of some pretty major decisions lately, and given my unhealthy appetite for analysis, I was eager to hear the breakdown. Maybe somewhere in the four simple steps of decision-making, I could understand where I’ve gone wrong in the past, and how to prevent poor judgment in the future.

"You cannot solve a problem in the same state of consciousness –or with the same type of thinking –which created the problem." -Albert Einstein

According to Books, first you perceive a situation. Next, you think of possible courses of action. Then, you calculate which course of action is in your best interest. And, finally, you take action. Simple enough. The article describes how “economic models and entire social science disciplines are premised on the assumption that people are mostly engaged in rationally calculating and maximizing their self-interest.” No surprise there. Though I’m not enthusiastic to admit it, I think I can pretty clearly identify self-centered decisions that I’ve made. Inconsideration is something I can work on.

The troubling part of the process, as Brooks points out, is the first step. Perception may seem simple, he says, you just look and see what’s around. Unlike calculating your own self-interest, perception is much more delicate to deconstruct. The most likely reason for the difficulty is that most perception takes place beneath any level of awareness. Cognitive biases, such as selective perception or optimism “wishful thinking” bias, have the power to distort our understanding of a situation and every calculation up to the point of making a decision.

As Brooks put it, “Looking at and perceiving the world is an active process of meaning-making that shapes and biases the rest of the decision-making chain.”

Another name for this decision-making process is the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Developed by Thomas L. Saaty in the 1970’s, the AHP is based on mathematics and psychology. It is used extensively today to help people deal with complex decisions politics, business, education and more.

When I sit back to think of my own perception, I can identify at least two biases that have plagued my decision-making over the years. The most discernable is my optimism bias or "wishful thinking". Ninety percent of the time, this bias helps me to inflate any good feelings about a person, and ignore the bad. When I’m being influenced by my wishful thinking, I imagine someone in terms of what I believe is his or her potential.

Do you want to know where this thinking will get you? Constantly making excuses for someone and explaining the potential you envision to others. If I could give anyone advice, I’d say to revisit the jerk in ten years then decide to give it a chance if he lived up to what you imagined.

It's not surprising that the study of biases are front and center right now considering the current presidential race (elderly bias, female bias, racial bias). The chances are that one of these biases will affect every voter's decision on November 4 --not to mention this will be a popular topic to study for years to come.

As Nicholas Kristof said, "This 2008 election is a milestone and may put a black man in the White House. That creates an opportunity for an adult conversation about the murky complexities of race, in part because there’s evidence that when people become aware of their unconscious biases, they can overcome them."